Estac Troyes 0-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Rodez at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 0.80 PPG versus Rodez's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 0, Rodez 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rodez trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 57% and Rodez 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 50% | Rodez 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Rodez 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.931 / defence 1.064 | Rodez attack 0.840 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.098. Data: 42 Estac Troyes games / 42 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 39% | Draw 30% | Rodez 31%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Rodez 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 80% | Rodez 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 39% | Draw 30% | Rodez 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Estac Troyes 1.13 / Rodez 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.931 / def 1.064 | Rodez attack 0.840 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Rodez xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Rodez kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Estac Troyes 0 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Rodez part of?
Estac Troyes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 39% chance of winning, Rodez a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Estac Troyes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Rodez in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.36
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.11
0.98
Rodez xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.98 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 9W 16D 17L from 42 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 15L across 42 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.02 PPG, Rodez on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.50 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 9W 16D 17L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Rodez have gone 15W 12D 15L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Rodez away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.30 PPG; Rodez away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Rodez won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Rodez have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Estac Troyes at 70%, Rodez at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estac Troyes) and 55% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Estac Troyes's games and 65% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Estac Troyes's matches and 55% of Rodez's.
Do Estac Troyes and Rodez tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rodez in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Estac Troyes 0-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Rodez 0.98 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rodez outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Rodez attack 0.84 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 39% | Draw 30% | Rodez 31%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 50%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.02 PPG, Rodez 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.