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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estac Troyes and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 29, as Estac Troyes and RED Star FC 93 drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.36 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.70 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 53% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 19%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 50%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.18 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights