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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Montpellier 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.56 xG and Montpellier 1.02 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against Montpellier attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 26% | Montpellier 24%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 47%, Montpellier 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Montpellier's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights