Estac Troyes vs Martigues – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Martigues.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Martigues 4-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.38 xG and Martigues 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Martigues landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.79 / defence 1.01 against Martigues attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 46% | Draw 27% | Martigues 26%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 53%, Martigues 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 23%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Martigues's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Martigues (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights