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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Guingamp 5-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.44 xG and Guingamp 0.97 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.20 / defence 0.73 against Guingamp attack 1.16 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 48% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 25%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 46%, Guingamp 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Guingamp's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.38 PPG, Guingamp 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights