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Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Guingamp attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 50%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights