🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Grenoble 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Grenoble 2-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.46 xG and Grenoble 1.04 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Grenoble attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 47% | Draw 26% | Grenoble 27%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 47%, Grenoble 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Grenoble's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.29 PPG, Grenoble 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights