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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Caen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Caen 3-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and Caen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Caen attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 49% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Caen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Caen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.09 PPG, Caen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights