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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Boulogne 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.55 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.50 / defence 1.05 against Boulogne attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 21%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 56%, Boulogne 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Boulogne's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights