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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Bastia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.76 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.50 / defence 0.81 against Bastia attack 0.51 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 67% | Draw 22% | Bastia 11%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 51%, Bastia 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bastia's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.49 PPG, Bastia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights