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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 10

Kick-off

Fri 17 Oct 2025

19:00

Venue

Stade de l'Aube

Competition

Ligue 2

France

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estac Troyes Win

67%

Estac Troyes

1.48

22%

Draw

4.54

11%

Bastia

9.51

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

17.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

15.7%

Home win

0 – 0

10.1%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.76

Estac Troyes xG

Total xG

2.29

0.53

Bastia xG

67%
22%
Estac TroyesDrawBastia

1.48

67%

Home win

4.54

22%

Draw

9.51

11%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

40%

Over 2.5

2.50

60%

Under 2.5

1.67

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

34%

BTTS Yes

2.94

66%

BTTS No

1.51

Clean Sheet

59%

Estac Troyes

1.70

17%

Bastia

5.81

Win to Nil

40%

Estac Troyes

2.51

2%

Bastia

55.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.1 5.4 1.4 0.2
1 17.9 9.4 2.5 0.4 0.1
2 15.7 8.3 2.2 0.4 0.1
3 9.2 4.9 1.3 0.2
4 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.1
5 1.4 0.8 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.760
λ Away (xG) 0.528
Total xG 2.288
League avg home goals 1.251
League avg away goals 1.281
Estac Troyes attack strength 1.500
Estac Troyes defence strength 0.805
Bastia attack strength 0.512
Bastia defence strength 0.938
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 43