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Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Annecy 3-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.80 xG and Annecy 0.94 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.45 / defence 0.82 against Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 58% | Draw 23% | Annecy 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Annecy 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Annecy's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.46 PPG, Annecy 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights