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Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Amiens 3-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 2.09 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.43 / defence 0.79 against Amiens attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 60% | Draw 21% | Amiens 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Amiens 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Amiens's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.51 PPG, Amiens 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights