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Poisson model favours Estac Troyes (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Amiens.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Estac Troyes welcome Amiens to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Estac Troyes carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

Estac Troyes hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Amiens, with 1 draws in between.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Estac Troyes winning.

The historical record gives Estac Troyes a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Amiens in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 29% versus Amiens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Amiens 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 2.09 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.429 / defence 0.787 | Amiens attack 1.150 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.231. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Estac Troyes games / 45 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 60% | Draw 21% | Amiens 20%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Amiens 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 40% | Amiens 50%.

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