Estac Troyes 3-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Estac Troyes (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estac Troyes face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Estac Troyes welcome Amiens to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's home record at Stade de l'Aube: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Estac Troyes hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Amiens, with 1 draws in between.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
The historical record gives Estac Troyes a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 29% versus Amiens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Amiens 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 2.09 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.429 / defence 0.787 | Amiens attack 1.150 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.231. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Estac Troyes games / 45 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 60% | Draw 21% | Amiens 20%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Amiens 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 40% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 60% | Draw 21% | Amiens 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Estac Troyes 2.09 / Amiens 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.429 / def 0.787 | Amiens attack 1.150 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Amiens xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Amiens kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Amiens kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Estac Troyes 3 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Amiens part of?
Estac Troyes vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 60% chance of winning, Amiens a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Estac Troyes and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 3W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Amiens in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.84
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.21
1.11
Amiens xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
2%
41.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.11 for Amiens, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 8D 17L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (17W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.51 PPG, Amiens on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (5W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Amiens in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 20W 8D 17L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 7D 21L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Amiens away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.95 PPG; Amiens away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Amiens in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Amiens runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Estac Troyes have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Estac Troyes 23% BTTS, Amiens 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 50% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 36% of games; Amiens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 46% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 50% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Amiens tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Amiens 3-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 2.09 xG and Amiens 1.11 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.43 / defence 0.79 against Amiens attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 60% | Draw 21% | Amiens 20%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Amiens 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.51 PPG, Amiens 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.