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Stalemate at Estac Troyes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 30, as Estac Troyes and Ajaccio drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.33 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ajaccio landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against Ajaccio attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 48% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 23%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 51%, Ajaccio 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ajaccio's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.13 PPG, Ajaccio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights