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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque and Le Mans share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque and Le Mans finished level at 2-2 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.81 xG and Le Mans 1.14 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Le Mans outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Le Mans attack 0.94 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 53% | Draw 23% | Le Mans 24%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 60%, Le Mans 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.00 PPG, Le Mans 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Mans scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights