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Stalemate at Dunkerque's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque and Guingamp finished level at 0-0 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.79 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 45%, Guingamp 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.64 PPG, Guingamp 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights