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Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Guingamp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Promotion Play-offs - 1st Round, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.62 xG and Guingamp 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against Guingamp attack 1.27 / defence 1.08, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 49% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 27%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 40%, Guingamp 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Guingamp's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.42 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights