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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.35 xG and Guingamp 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Guingamp attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 40% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 34%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Guingamp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.42 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights