Dunkerque 3-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Guingamp meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Dunkerque are significantly better at Stade Marcel-Tribut than their overall form suggests.
Guingamp (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.90 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dunkerque, 3 for Guingamp and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 46% versus Guingamp 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Guingamp 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.35 xG and Guingamp 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.050 / defence 1.020 | Guingamp attack 1.159 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.041. Data: 66 Dunkerque games / 66 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 40% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 40% | Guingamp 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 40% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Dunkerque 1.35 / Guingamp 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.050 / def 1.020 | Guingamp attack 1.159 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Guingamp kick off?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 7 April 2025 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Dunkerque 3 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Dunkerque vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Guingamp part of?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 40% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dunkerque and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 3W.
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 1.05x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.16x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.78
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
Guingamp xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.23 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 27W 13D 26L from 66 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 23L across 66 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.50 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 14W 4D 15L from 33 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 15W 6D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.36 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 27W 13D 26L in their last 66 games (1.42 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 28W 15D 23L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.39 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Guingamp in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Dunkerque
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
From 9 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 3, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 39%, Guingamp 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dunkerque) and 46% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 39%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 36% of games; Guingamp in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 46% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dunkerque's recent games and 46% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.35 xG and Guingamp 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Guingamp attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 40% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 34%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 42%, Guingamp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.42 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.