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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Caen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Caen 3-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.65 xG and Caen 0.90 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Caen attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 55% | Draw 24% | Caen 20%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 43%, Caen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Caen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.40 PPG, Caen 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Caen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights