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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.06 xG and Bastia 0.73 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Bastia attack 0.73 / defence 0.85, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 43% | Draw 32% | Bastia 25%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 45%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights