Dunkerque 0-5 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Dunkerque welcome Bastia to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 0W 2D 6L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 0.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dunkerque at 0.70 PPG versus Bastia's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dunkerque have won 1, Bastia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bastia trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 38% versus Bastia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 38% | Bastia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.67 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.565 / defence 1.266 | Bastia attack 0.666 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.565 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Dunkerque games / 54 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 35% | Bastia 40%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Bastia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 38% | Bastia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 35% | Bastia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Dunkerque 0.67 / Bastia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.565 / def 1.266 | Bastia attack 0.666 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Bastia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bastia xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Bastia kick off?
Dunkerque vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Dunkerque 0 - 5 Bastia.
Where is Dunkerque vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Bastia part of?
Dunkerque vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 25% chance of winning, Bastia a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Dunkerque and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Record (2 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Bastia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
25%
4.01
35%
2.86
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.61
0.94
Bastia xG
4.01
25%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.35
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.94 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 4D 9L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 0.81 PPG, Bastia on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 0W 2D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.81 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.38 points per game from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Bastia have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (0.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.25 PPG; Bastia away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bastia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
3
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bastia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 38% BTTS, Bastia 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Dunkerque and 12% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 62% of games; Bastia in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 25% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Dunkerque's recent games and 12% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Bastia tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bastia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bastia run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Dunkerque 0-5 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.67 xG and Bastia 0.94 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 0.94 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.56 / defence 1.27 against Bastia attack 0.67 / defence 0.96, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 25% | Draw 35% | Bastia 40%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 38%, Bastia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 0.81 PPG, Bastia 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.