Dijon 2-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dijon face Nimes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dijon welcome Nimes to Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dijon have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Dijon have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dijon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nimes — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Nimes have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Dijon) versus 1.40 (Nimes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Dijon have won 0, Nimes 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Jan 2022, ended Dijon 1–2 Nimes — a Nimes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nimes trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 54% versus Nimes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 54% | Nimes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.33 xG and Nimes 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.205 / defence 1.176 | Nimes attack 0.917 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.043. Data: built from Dijon's last 41 games and Nimes's last 41.
Result probabilities: Dijon 41% | Draw 27% | Nimes 32%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.42 | Draw 3.69 | Nimes 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dijon 40% (last 10 home games) | Nimes 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 41% | Draw 27% | Nimes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Dijon 1.33 / Nimes 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.205 / def 1.176 | Nimes attack 0.917 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Dijon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Nimes xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dijon vs Nimes FAQs
What time does Dijon vs Nimes kick off?
Dijon vs Nimes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Nimes?
Dijon 2 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Dijon vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Nimes part of?
Dijon vs Nimes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 41% chance of winning, Nimes a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dijon and Nimes will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Dijon vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.21x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dijon's last 41 games and Nimes's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.69
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.46
1.12
Nimes xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dijon vs Nimes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dijon and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Dijon and 1.12 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 10D 17L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Nimes's form line: 15W 8D 18L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.27 PPG, Nimes on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 20 home games (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 8W 4D 8L from their last 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.12 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Nimes
Early Season
Dijon (Home) vs Nimes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dijon
Early Season
Nimes
Early Season
❓ Dijon vs Nimes Form FAQs
What form are Dijon and Nimes in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Nimes have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Nimes away?
Dijon's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.55 PPG; Nimes away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 20 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Dijon have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Dijon's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dijon
0
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Dijon vs Nimes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Nimes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Dijon have won 2, Nimes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Nimes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 May 2023: Nimes 1-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 50%, Nimes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dijon) and 50% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Nimes in 35%; Nimes in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dijon vs Nimes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dijon and Nimes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dijon's recent matches and 40% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dijon and Nimes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dijon's recent games and 50% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Nimes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Dijon's recent matches and 65% of Nimes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dijon edge out Nimes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Nimes 2-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.33 xG and Nimes 1.12 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Nimes attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 41% | Draw 27% | Nimes 32%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 54%, Nimes 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.27 PPG, Nimes 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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