Amiens 3-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bastia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Amiens, 1.40 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Amiens 0W, Bastia 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 44% versus Bastia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 39% | Bastia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.09 xG and Bastia 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.026 / defence 0.869 | Bastia attack 1.323 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.043. Bastia have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Amiens games / 41 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Bastia 39%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 30% | Bastia 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Bastia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Amiens 1.09 / Bastia 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.026 / def 0.869 | Bastia attack 1.323 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Bastia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Bastia kick off?
Amiens vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Amiens 3 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Amiens vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Bastia part of?
Amiens vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 33% chance of winning, Bastia a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Amiens and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 2 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Amiens and Bastia in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.32x) against Amiens's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.52
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.29
1.20
Bastia xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Amiens and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Amiens and 1.20 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 17D 13L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bastia's form line: 12W 16D 13L from 41 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Amiens against 1.27 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.10 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Bastia in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 11W 17D 13L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Bastia have gone 12W 16D 13L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Bastia away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Bastia away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Amiens or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
5
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Bastia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Bastia?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 35%, Bastia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Amiens) and 45% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 35% of games; Bastia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Amiens's recent matches and 55% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amiens's recent games and 45% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Bastia tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bastia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Bastia 3-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.09 xG and Bastia 1.20 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Bastia attack 1.32 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Bastia 39%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 39%, Bastia 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.22 PPG, Bastia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.