Concarneau 2-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Concarneau at 44%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Concarneau vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajaccio make the trip to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir to face Concarneau in Ligue 2 (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Concarneau (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Concarneau have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ajaccio have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Ajaccio arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Concarneau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Ajaccio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 27% of Concarneau's games and 27% of Ajaccio's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 27% | Ajaccio 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.15 xG and Ajaccio 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.874 / defence 1.255 | Ajaccio attack 0.553 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.105. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.553 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ajaccio's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 11 games and Ajaccio's last 11.
Result probabilities: Concarneau 44% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 24%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 2.25 | Draw 3.16 | Ajaccio 4.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Concarneau are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Concarneau if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 40% (last 5 home games) | Ajaccio 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 44% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Concarneau 1.15 / Ajaccio 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.874 / def 1.255 | Ajaccio attack 0.553 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Concarneau (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Ajaccio xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Concarneau vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Concarneau vs Ajaccio kick off?
Concarneau vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Ajaccio?
Concarneau 2 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Concarneau vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Concarneau vs Ajaccio part of?
Concarneau vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 44% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Concarneau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Concarneau and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Concarneau vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.55x) against Concarneau's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Concarneau's last 11 games and Ajaccio's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Concarneau Win
44%
2.25
32%
3.16
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Concarneau xG
Total xG
1.92
0.77
Ajaccio xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Concarneau vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Concarneau and 0.77 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Concarneau's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Ajaccio, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 2L across 11 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Concarneau heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Concarneau have managed 1W 2D 2L from their last 5 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajaccio's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across their last 5 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Concarneau are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.91 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Concarneau have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Ajaccio in 27%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
Concarneau (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Concarneau
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Concarneau vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Concarneau and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Ajaccio away?
Concarneau's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.00 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Concarneau or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concarneau
0
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Concarneau vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Ajaccio?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Concarneau have won 1, Ajaccio have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Ajaccio 1-0 Concarneau.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Concarneau) and 0% (Ajaccio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Concarneau and 40% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 60%; Concarneau have failed to score in 60% of games; Ajaccio in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Concarneau vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Concarneau and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Concarneau's recent matches and 0% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Concarneau and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Concarneau's recent games and 40% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Concarneau's recent matches and 60% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Concarneau edge out Ajaccio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Ajaccio 2-1 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.15 xG and Ajaccio 0.77 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Concarneau beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Ajaccio attack 0.55 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 44% | Draw 32% | Ajaccio 24%, with Concarneau to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 27%, Ajaccio 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Concarneau winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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