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Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.47 xG and Rodez 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Rodez attack 1.18 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 25% | Rodez 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 39%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.96 PPG, Rodez 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights