Clermont Foot vs Rodez – Match Report

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Clermont Foot and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.41 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 1.45 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 45%, Rodez 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights