🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rodez at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Rodez make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rodez have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Trading & In-Play

Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Rodez — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 47% versus Rodez 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 45% | Rodez 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.41 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.860 / defence 1.152 | Rodez attack 1.448 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.448 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Clermont Foot games / 53 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 24% | Rodez 44%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights