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Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.08 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, RED Star FC 93 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights