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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Clermont Foot and Nancy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot and Nancy finished level at 2-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Nancy 0.81 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nancy outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Nancy attack 0.71 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 35% | Nancy 25%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Nancy 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Nancy's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG, Nancy 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights