Clermont Foot 1-1 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Le Mans fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Le Mans at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Mans stand at 2W 2D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Le Mans have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Le Mans have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 1.14 (Le Mans). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Le Mans in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Le Mans in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 57% versus Le Mans 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 57% | Le Mans 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.44 xG and Le Mans 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.915 / defence 0.986 | Le Mans attack 0.993 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.233. Le Mans bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Clermont Foot games / 7 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 32%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Le Mans 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Le Mans 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Clermont Foot 1.44 / Le Mans 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.915 / def 0.986 | Le Mans attack 0.993 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Le Mans xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Le Mans kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Le Mans kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Le Mans?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Le Mans.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Le Mans part of?
Clermont Foot vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 42% chance of winning, Le Mans a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Clermont Foot and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Le Mans?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Le Mans in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Le Mans (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Le Mans's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Le Mans's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.86
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.64
1.21
Le Mans xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.21 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 2W 3D 2L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Mans's form line: 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Le Mans, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.29 PPG, Le Mans on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Le Mans have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Le Mans's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Le Mans
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Le Mans in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 games (1.29 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Le Mans away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.33 PPG; Le Mans away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Le Mans in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
1
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Le Mans?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Le Mans have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Le Mans 1-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Le Mans?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Clermont Foot at 67%, Le Mans at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Clermont Foot and 67% for Le Mans. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 33% of games; Le Mans in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Clermont Foot's games and 67% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Clermont Foot's matches and 67% of Le Mans's.
Do Clermont Foot and Le Mans tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Le Mans share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Le Mans finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.44 xG and Le Mans 1.21 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Le Mans attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 32%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 57%, Le Mans 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Mans's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.29 PPG, Le Mans 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Mans (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.