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Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Guingamp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Guingamp 1.22 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Guingamp attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 32%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 41%, Guingamp 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.01 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights