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Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Clermont Foot.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Clermont Foot 0-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.74 xG and Estac Troyes 1.07 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.62 / defence 1.00 against Estac Troyes attack 0.98 / defence 0.84, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.83 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights