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Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Dunkerque 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Dunkerque 1.57 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Dunkerque attack 1.26 / defence 0.94, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 26% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 49%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 40%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights