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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Clermont Foot and Boulogne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 16, as Clermont Foot and Boulogne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Boulogne attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 32%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 53%, Boulogne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Boulogne's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.24 PPG, Boulogne 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights