Clermont Foot 1-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Boulogne make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Boulogne have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne away from home this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Boulogne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 65% and Boulogne 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 53% | Boulogne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.872 / defence 0.957 | Boulogne attack 0.810 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.208. Data: 49 Clermont Foot games / 15 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 32%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: Clermont Foot 70% | Boulogne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Clermont Foot 1.03 / Boulogne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.872 / def 0.957 | Boulogne attack 0.810 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Boulogne xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Boulogne kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Boulogne part of?
Clermont Foot vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 37% chance of winning, Boulogne a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Clermont Foot and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Boulogne in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Boulogne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.87) and Boulogne's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.81x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.22
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.97
0.94
Boulogne xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.94 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 6D 6L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.06 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Clermont Foot's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Boulogne have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.12 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 5W 3D 9L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Boulogne away?
Boulogne's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.12 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Boulogne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
1
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Boulogne?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Boulogne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Boulogne 0-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Boulogne?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 75%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Clermont Foot) and 25% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Boulogne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Clermont Foot's games and 50% of Boulogne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 25% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Clermont Foot and Boulogne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 16, as Clermont Foot and Boulogne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.03 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Boulogne attack 0.81 / defence 0.92, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 37% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 32%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 53%, Boulogne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Boulogne's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.24 PPG, Boulogne 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.