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Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Annecy 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Annecy 3-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.83 xG and Annecy 0.97 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.58 / defence 1.09 against Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 38%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 41%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Annecy's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights