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Poisson rates Annecy at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Annecy encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Clermont Foot welcome Annecy to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Annecy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Annecy in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Annecy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 41% | Annecy 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.83 xG and Annecy 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.582 / defence 1.091 | Annecy attack 0.827 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.082. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.582 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Clermont Foot games / 70 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 38%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Annecy 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Clermont Foot's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Annecy 30% BTTS from recent games.

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