Clermont Foot 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajaccio — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Clermont Foot are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 2, Ajaccio 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Ajaccio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Clermont Foot trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ajaccio trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Ajaccio 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Clermont Foot 43% | Ajaccio 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Ajaccio 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.864 / defence 1.087 | Ajaccio attack 0.741 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.015. Data: 20 Clermont Foot games / 58 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 49% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 23%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Ajaccio 4.35. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 70% | Ajaccio 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 49% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Clermont Foot 1.34 / Ajaccio 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.864 / def 1.087 | Ajaccio attack 0.741 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ajaccio xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio part of?
Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 49% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Clermont Foot and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Ajaccio?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Ajaccio in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.86) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.56
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.16
0.82
Ajaccio xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.82 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot come into this having played 54 games, going 11W 16D 27L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.15 PPG from 54 outings (17W 11D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 0.91 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Clermont Foot's home form reads 5W 10D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.41 points per game from 27 outings (2W 5D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.89 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 16D 27L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 17W 11D 26L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Ajaccio away?
Clermont Foot's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.93 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 2, Ajaccio have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Ajaccio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 56%, Ajaccio 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Clermont Foot) and 37% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 41% of games; Ajaccio in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 30% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 37% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.34 xG and Ajaccio 0.82 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Ajaccio attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 49% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 23%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Ajaccio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 43%, Ajaccio 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.91 PPG, Ajaccio 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.