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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Caen and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Caen and PAU finished level at 2-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.97 xG and PAU 1.13 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against PAU attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Caen 31% | Draw 30% | PAU 39%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 48%, PAU 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Caen's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

PAU's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Caen 1.20 PPG, PAU 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights