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Dominant Martigues run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Caen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues beat Caen 0-3 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.01 xG and Martigues 0.81 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Caen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Martigues outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Martigues attack 0.65 / defence 0.93, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Caen 39% | Draw 32% | Martigues 28%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Martigues win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 50%, Martigues 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Caen's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Martigues's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Caen 0.70 PPG, Martigues 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Martigues win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Martigues (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights