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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Caen 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.21 xG and Guingamp 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 1.20 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Caen 33% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 40%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 49%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Caen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guingamp's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Caen 1.28 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights