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Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Boulogne 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Saint Etienne beat Boulogne 0-1 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.60 xG and Saint Etienne 1.51 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Saint Etienne attack 1.10 / defence 1.31, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 40% | Draw 24% | Saint Etienne 36%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 67%, Saint Etienne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.00 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights