Boulogne 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boulogne vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Boulogne and Reims meet at Stade de la Libération in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stade de la Libération — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reims have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 7D 0L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reims are 1.10 PPG clear of Boulogne in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boulogne lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 49% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 40% | Reims 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 0.87 xG and Reims 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.839 / defence 0.985 | Reims attack 1.013 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.348. Data: 43 Boulogne games / 43 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 24% | Draw 29% | Reims 47%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.13. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Boulogne 60% | Reims 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 24% | Draw 29% | Reims 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Boulogne 0.87 / Reims 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.839 / def 0.985 | Reims attack 1.013 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Reims (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Reims xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Reims kick off?
Boulogne vs Reims kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Reims?
Boulogne 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Boulogne vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Reims part of?
Boulogne vs Reims is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 24% chance of winning, Reims a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Boulogne and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 1W.
What form are Boulogne and Reims in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Boulogne's attack at 0.84x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.01x) against Boulogne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
24%
4.16
29%
3.50
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.22
1.34
Reims xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
15.97
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.34 for Reims, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Boulogne have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 15D 18L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims's form line: 18W 19D 6L from 43 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Boulogne have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 11D 3L from 21 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boulogne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Reims in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 19D 6L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.86 PPG; Reims away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Reims in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 26 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 2-6 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boulogne have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Boulogne
2
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Reims have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2026, when Boulogne 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Boulogne) and 43% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 38%; Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games; Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 57% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Boulogne's recent games and 43% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and Reims tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boulogne and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 10, as Boulogne and Reims drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.87 xG and Reims 1.34 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Reims attack 1.01 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 24% | Draw 29% | Reims 47%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 40%, Reims 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.