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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAU run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Boulogne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Boulogne 0-3 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.09 xG and PAU 1.25 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Boulogne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAU outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.75 / defence 1.09 against PAU attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 32% | Draw 28% | PAU 40%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 43%, PAU 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAU's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 0.86 PPG, PAU 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights