🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Montpellier 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.17 xG and Montpellier 1.36 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.96 / defence 1.51 against Montpellier attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 32% | Draw 27% | Montpellier 41%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 55%, Montpellier 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Montpellier's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 0.95 PPG, Montpellier 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights