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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Boulogne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.04 xG and Estac Troyes 1.70 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.99 / defence 1.51 against Estac Troyes attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 23% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 53%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 50%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights