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Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Boulogne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot beat Boulogne 0-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.49 xG and Clermont Foot 1.49 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Boulogne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.95 / defence 1.36 against Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 1.35, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 38% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 38%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 56%, Clermont Foot 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.16 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights