Boulogne 1-3 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Boulogne and Clermont Foot meet at Stade de la Libération in Ligue 2, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.45 xG and Clermont Foot 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Clermont Foot attack 0.803 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.118. Data: 0 Boulogne games / 34 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 3.70. Boulogne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Relegation Round | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Boulogne 1.45 / Clermont Foot 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Clermont Foot attack 0.803 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Boulogne vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Boulogne 1 - 3 Clermont Foot.
Where is Boulogne vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Clermont Foot part of?
Boulogne vs Clermont Foot is a Relegation Round fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 47% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Boulogne and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and Clermont Foot in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Clermont Foot away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Boulogne's attack rating (0.85) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.80x) against Boulogne's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
47%
2.14
26%
3.79
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.48
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.03 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Pre-Season
Clermont Foot
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boulogne have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Boulogne
2
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Clermont Foot?
From 5 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Boulogne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Boulogne 1-3 at Stade de la Libération, Relegation Round, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.45 xG and Clermont Foot 1.03 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.